$LAPTOP
The launch report.
Hunter Biden's coin goes live today. Why it exists, who holds what, three ways the open can go, how to trade each one, and what to watch once it's live.
Official contract · Base · check it before every trade0xB095274743941e953c746F9C228DA9c18Bb6ec29350+ fake LAPTOP contracts are already trading. Coinbase's own price page was pointing at a Solana fake this morning. Take the CA from here or laptoptoken.com. Never from a screener.
Wed 9 Sept. Time is from Pump.fun's deleted promo. Nothing official has printed a clock time and each venue can open when it wants. Target, not gospel.
Three ways people get wrecked today
Hundreds of LAPTOP contracts are live. They trade first, print huge volume, and die when the real one opens.
100M tokens are going out free. Free tokens get sold at any price. Whoever buys the open is their exit.
The only live pool charges 5% each way. A quick flip needs a 10% move just to break even.
Why a laptop, and why now
The coin is named after the biggest political media story of 2020. That's the whole marketing budget.
The laptop. October 2020, three weeks before the election. The New York Post publishes emails from a MacBook Hunter left at a Delaware repair shop. Twitter and Facebook throttle the story. 51 ex-intel officials call it Russian disinformation. Fox runs it daily. The NYT and Washington Post authenticate it in 2022, and the FBI confirms it's his at the 2024 gun trial. For four years "Hunter's laptop" is the right's shorthand for a rigged media, and the left's for a smear.
The comeback. 2024: gun conviction, tax plea, then a pardon from his father in December. 2025 to 2026: seven years sober, a media tour from Tucker Carlson to Andrew Callaghan, and a Substack ("Where's Hunter?") that passed 90k subscribers. In May he said on record he "believes in the meme token".
The play. Take the thing they used against you, put your name on it, sell it back to the internet. Trump did it with $TRUMP in January 2025: roughly $320M to Trump-linked entities by May, 764k wallets down. Hunter's version lands with a pardon, an audience, a midterm two months out and TRUMP down 97%. The airdrop to TRUMP losers is the troll. The vesting and MiCA filing are the grown-up costume.
"They turned laptop into a weapon. I turned it into a token."
Hunter Biden, 9 Sept 2026
"The symbol they used to try to end me is now a symbol of resilience, redemption, and recovery."
Substack, launch day
"You should not expect me or anyone else to make this token more valuable."
Disclosures, laptoptoken.com
Both are true. It's a redemption story and a cash grab. Foundation profits go to TTM Media Group LLC, owned by the founders. Trade the second read, enjoy the first.
Who's playing, and what they want
Price is what these incentives do to each other.
The people behind it
Hunter Biden
Artist, author, recovery advocate. Convicted and pardoned in 2024. 2026 media tour, 90k-subscriber Substack.
Hervé Larren
Early Bitcoin holder, NFT collector, founder of Airvey. Named in the whitepaper next to Hunter.
Bryce Howarth
Cayman professional director (Horizons Global). Sole director of the BVI issuer. Proposed Lido Alliance BORG director.
Phoenix Veritas Foundation
Six months old. USD 1 share capital, ~$1.4M private loan. MiCA whitepaper filed in the Netherlands. Profits to TTM Media Group LLC, owned by the founders.
Coinbase
Disclosures say locked buckets sit in Coinbase Custody and claims run on Coinbase wallets. Base's Jesse Pollak said the chain chose not to help design or promote it.
GSR + undisclosed desks
GSR took 15.5M. Other desks were onboarded 7 and 8 Sept. Loan terms not disclosed.
Where the tokens sit, and when they move
Lavender is unlocked at launch. Indigo is locked. Grey is charity.
| Day-1 airdrop | 100M | 80M to Substack and Channel 5 subscribers, 20M to TRUMP losers via exchanges. 30 days to claim. |
| Liquidity / MMs | 100M | Not locked. ~42M already out to desks. |
| Treasury | 50M | Pays the bills. Gets sold. |
| Future airdrop | 100M | Foundation's call. Criteria "TBA". |
| Founders | 300M | 6-month lock, then 12.5M a month for 2 years. Promised, not coded. |
| Predictions | 300M | 12-month lock. Burned if 30 events happen, else to charity. |
| Charity | 50M | Vests over 36 months. Charities sell. |
The locks are not on-chain. The filing says "no transfer restrictions encoded at the contract level." Investigators found every bucket in Gnosis Safes with the same 2-of-3 signers. Basescan this morning: 96% of supply in 8 wallets, 25 holders total. Until tokens show up in a vesting contract or a named custody address, the locks are a promise.
- Hour 1Claims open. Early claimers sell. MMs sell spikes.
- Day 1 to 3Listings. Every listing is an exit door. Political coins have topped in this window every time.
- Day 1 to 30Rolling claims. A slow leak, not one candle. Bounces get sold for a month.
- Any timeThe 2-of-3 keys move a bucket. Allowed by the contract, not by the promise. See Watch.
- March 2027Founder unlocks start. 12.5M a month.
- Sept 2027Predictions start vesting into burns or charity.
The distribution dump, in plain English
"Is it a rug?" is the wrong question. A rug is when the team pulls liquidity or mints and dumps. LAPTOP can't mint on Base, and people who only check for that will call it safe. What hurts you here is slower.
350M tokens are unlocked at launch and nobody paid for any of them. 100M go out free. Free tokens get sold at any price, because any price is profit. Another 100M sit with the Foundation and its market makers, whose job is to sell into strength. And the Foundation can release 100M more whenever it likes.
So the person buying the open is bidding against 350M tokens that cost their holders nothing, through a pool that clips 5% per trade. That's a distribution. How hard it hits depends on how fast the free tokens get claimed and sold, which is what Predictions is built around.
Timing: claims stay open 30 days through an email-login portal. The free supply leaks, it doesn't dump. Every bounce for a month has sellers in it.
You're the first person paying.
Why CT hates it, and whether they're right
The loudest voices have no bag in this one. That explains the volume. It doesn't settle whether they're correct.
The noise
- No allocation, no presale, no KOL deals. $TRUMP had 80% insider supply and Kelsier sniping MELANIA and LIBRA. LAPTOP published the CA early and gave CT nothing. People who normally get paid to be early are spectators.
- "Scam" is doing a lot of work. Threadguy's actual complaint: pre-announcing "ruins any chance of success". That's "no edge", not fraud.
- Half the replies are about Hunter, not the token. They don't move price after hour one.
- Deleted promos are about reputation, not the contract. Kraken and Pump.fun pulled posts because the replies were ugly.
The substance
- One 2-of-3 multisig behind ~96% of supply. No vesting contract. The strongest point the critics have, and most haven't made it.
- LayerZero OFT with setPeer. Hacken's own report: setting a peer enables cross-chain minting. Zero peers today. Two signatures away.
- The Foundation grades its own homework. It decides if the 30 burn events happened, "at sole discretion".
- The docs contradict each other. FAQ: unclaimed airdrop is burned. Legal filing: it goes to charity.
- USD 1 share capital. This is a vehicle, not a company.
How it stacks up against last week's runners
Biggest trench week since TRUMP: $6.35B through the terminals, PONS up 300%, Pons out-earning Pump.fun in fees. Different game to this one.
Where that leaves you: the trench playbook (snipe, ride the shill, sell the listing) doesn't map. The critics are right about the keys and right that there's no minute-one trade. They're wrong that it's a bundle or a classic rug. It's a slow, public, discretionary distribution. Trade it like one.
Risk, rated
No mint on Base, no tax, no blacklist, no pause. Hacken audited.
2-of-3 multisig over ~96% of supply. No vesting contract. setPeer can mint cross-chain.
One pool, 5% fee, not locked. Thin until exchanges list.
350M unlocked, 100M free, desks on borrowed tokens.
~10% round trip on-chain.
350+ fake contracts. Only claim portal: airdrop.laptoptoken.com.
CT hostile. Mainstream attention huge.
Six venues named, two promos deleted, one Kraken test deposit. No listing in 48h means no exit door.
What this does to everything else
This launch has been pulling liquidity out of the trenches for two days. Where it goes next depends on the chart.
If it runs
- Liquidity leaves the bundled runners for anything with a political name.
- A mini meta forms. TRUMP, MELANIA and smaller political tickers catch a sympathy bid.
- Copycat wave. Every politician gets a pump.fun deploy within the hour. All bundled.
- New wallets from mainstream news. The only real source of upside. Watch holders, not volume.
If it grinds
- The political basket goes with it. A failed LAPTOP is a reason to short the basket.
- Liquidity drifts back to the trenches. That's the relief trade.
- "Political coins are dead" becomes the story until the midterms force a second look.
- The 5% pool becomes a trap. On-chain holders can't exit cheaply, so the grind runs longer.
P1 or P2 prints: TRUMP and the smaller political tickers get the sympathy bid. TRUMP has perps everywhere and the deepest book.
P3 prints: short TRUMP and anything that pumped in sympathy. Wait for the first lower high. Don't front-run the open.
The capital that sat out for LAPTOP goes somewhere within 48 hours. If LAPTOP grinds, it goes back to the Fomo and Pons runners. Scoop, don't chase.
Three ways the open goes
Odds are mine. The first hour of claim data tells you which one you're in.
Opens and barely dips
Free supply barely dents it. Claimants are slow, the portal has friction, mainstream demand outruns the trickle. Price grinds up with shallow pullbacks.
Why: 80M of the 100M goes to email subscribers who've never held a wallet. Meanwhile CNN, Fox and the WSJ are running the story to people who don't read CT.
Drops 20 to 30%, bottoms fast, then goes
A decent share of claimers sell straight away. The open gets hit, a floor forms inside an hour or two, and the bounce is violent because the sellers had nothing left.
Why: every political launch has flushed fast and recovered fast. The airdrop is the flush. The listings and the news cycle are the recovery. The Foundation needs a headline number for the listings, and a fast V gives them one.
Tanks. Bottom takes 1 to 3 days
Most free supply hits the market. Claimers sell fast, MMs sell every bounce, no bid until listings. A base takes days, not hours.
Why: the TRUMP-loss cohort is crypto-native and angry. Channel 5's audience was told by Callaghan to stay away. If both dump, the 5% pool can't absorb it.
The target, and why
The logical target is a round FDV. The real target is the one that makes headlines: flipping $TRUMP's market cap, around $600M. "Hunter's coin flips Trump's" is the story every outlet runs, and it's the exit liquidity for the listings. The Foundation even wrote it into the burn events.
Meaning: the flip is the number the people running this need. That makes it a level to sell into, not buy. If it prints, you're distributing with them.
One play per prediction, one for the fade
Buy a bag, shave it, hold a core to targets that exist for a reason.
Bag and shave
Buy the open. Shave the initial stake at the first 2x. Hold the core to $100M, $250M, $500M FDV, the flip near $600M, and the first daily demand level after the listing spike. Out before March 2027 unlocks.
Buy the flush
Small starter at the open. Real size on the first higher low after the 20 to 30% dip. You're buying from zero-cost sellers who are done. Base case, so most of my size lives here.
Wait, then scoop
No open buy. Watch the claim wallets 6 to 24 hours. No higher low by hour 6 means you were right to wait. Buy the day 1 to 3 base when sell volume dries up, or don't.
Short the listing
Listings are the exit. CEX spike plus claim wallets selling into it is the top of leg one. Once perps exist, the short into the airdrop leak is the cleanest trade on the board. Trigger first, then size.
Should I snipe it?
No. There's no speed edge to buy: public CA, public time, 5% fee, no public mempool on Base. Every "LAPTOP sniper" on X today is a fake-token deployer or a fee.
Manual or terminal?
Manual through Uniswap for the open. A terminal (Fomo, gmgn, Banana Gun, Maestro) earns its keep after: limit sells at targets, no babysitting. Use one for exits, not entries.
My read
What I'm doing
Starter at the open, sized to survive zero. Real size on the first higher low after the flush, because P2 is my base case. Shave into the listing spike, core to the TRUMP flip. The claim wallets decide how big the core stays.
The bigger view
This launch has been pulling liquidity out of the rest of the meme market for two days and will keep doing it through the open. After that, a mini meta inside the political basket: TRUMP and the smaller political tickers catch a bid because the narrative is back, not because the coins changed. Watching that leg, not betting the house on it.
What makes me wrong
No listing in 48 hours. A Safe wallet moving early. Claim data showing free supply dumped faster than new buyers arrive. Any one and I'm flat. The listings are the exit, for me too.
Want the live read, not just the framework?
The Vault is Shade Intel's free Discord. Wallet tracking on the airdrop, the multisig and the market makers, plus exit calls as they trigger.
How to actually buy it
Two routes. Use the one you already have set up.
Cleanest, if it's listed
No gas, no CA to check, no 5% fee, instant exit. Nobody has confirmed a listing goes live at the open, so have Coinbase, Kraken or Bybit open with the asset searched at 7:55 ET. Not there? Route B. Don't chase.
A listing is also the first exit signal. On-chain buyers sell into a Coinbase pair. "Listed on Coinbase" means reassess, not add.
Uniswap on Base
- Wallet. Rabby, Coinbase Wallet or MetaMask with Base added. Rabby shows you what you're signing.
- ETH on Base, now. Withdraw from an exchange straight to your wallet, network Base. Bridging mid-launch is how people miss it.
- Paste the CA into Uniswap. Not the ticker. Match 0xB095…6ec29 character for character.
- Set slippage yourself. 3 to 5% early. Auto slippage fails or fills 20% worse.
- Test buy. Small. Confirm it lands and that you can sell it back. Then size.
- Sell the same way. 5% on the way out too. Build it into the target.
The Pump.fun route
Pump.fun advertised its app as a venue with 0.1% fees, then deleted the post. If it's live, that's far cheaper than the 5% pool. Verify the CA inside the app first.
The claim, if you're eligible
airdrop.laptoptoken.com only. Email login creates a Coinbase wallet with gas covered, or connect your own. 30-day window. Never sign a token approval to "claim". A real claim never asks for one.
What to watch once it's live
The multisig, the claim wallets, the desks and the listings. The wallet map, the triggers, and what you do on each.
The wallet map
Top holders on Basescan this morning. Labels are inferred from sizes against the whitepaper buckets: likely, not confirmed. The Vault confirms them as the first transfers print.
0xD81BF90A…2654fA818300.0MFounders · should not move before Mar 20270x296f38f1…E8287DA0C300.0MPredictions · should not move before Sept 2027, except to a burn address0xefF4D820…f56d24F69100.0MFuture airdrop · any movement is news0x38e33d04…664cca4E880.0MDay-1 airdrop (Substack + Channel 5) · the distributor. Outflows = claims0x8aeaFfdE…C50Bcc53057.5MLiquidity remainder · ~42M already out0xCB92B4Cb…B1B9f685950.0MTreasury or Charity · to exchanges = team selling0x246c846c…ba7aFaCBB50.0MCharity or Treasury · same rule0x43155059…c0025865919.0MTRUMP-loss airdrop · goes out via exchanges0xd89e17ed… · 0x19CbC83d… · others~42MMarket-maker loans · watch for exchange depositsTriggers and what you do
| What prints | What it means | What you do |
|---|---|---|
| Wallet 4 outflows (claim rate) | Under 10% in 3h: P1. 30 to 50%: P2. Over 50% in 2h: P3. | Pick the play. The most important number of the first hours. |
| Fresh claim wallets selling | Under 25% of claimed supply sold in 6h: small leak. Over 50%: every bounce is a sell for a month. | Held: buy the first higher low. Dumped: shave harder, arm Play 4. |
| Wallet 1 or 2 moves | A "locked" bucket is mobile. The promise broke. | Flat immediately. Re-enter only if it's confirmed as a move to a named Coinbase Custody address. |
| Wallet 3 moves | The Foundation is using its lever. | To a claim distributor: second leak, lower targets. To an exchange: team selling, cut. |
| Wallet 6 or 7 to an exchange | Treasury monetising. | Reduce the core by the share they sold. Match them. |
| MM wallets to exchange deposits | Listings imminent. Sell-side depth arriving. | Set exits at the listing. Don't add above the spike. |
| Listing inside 24h | Exit door opens. Spike, then sell. | Sell 30 to 50% into the listing candle. Reassess after. |
| No listing by 48h | The promised exit isn't there. | Cut size. The thesis needed the listings. |
| setPeer event on the OFT | Cross-chain mint path opened. | Flat until the peer's supply is verified. |
| Liquidity pulled from the pool | The closest thing to a classic rug this token can do. | Flat. No re-entry until a new pool is verified. |
| Holders flat, volume exploding | Wash. | Trade the holder curve, ignore the volume. |
| A normal-fee pool appears | On-chain trading becomes viable for small moves. | Scalps stop being negative EV. |
| First daily higher low after the listing spike | Distribution absorbed. First real structure. | Core adds here. Measure targets from this level. |
The catalyst calendar
30% of supply is tied to 30 events. Each yes burns tokens and makes a news cycle. Holding a core past launch week? This is why.
First live test of the burn.
Yes unless he's named.
Dems take House and/or Senate. The biggest scheduled catalyst.
Crypto-native side bets.
2026 average.
The opposite of a burn. 12.5M a month.
Trump won't. Musk might.
The checklist
Run it at hour one, hour six and day three.
- Is the CA 0xB095…6ec29?Anything else is fake, whatever the volume says.
- Is the claim site airdrop.laptoptoken.com?Never sign a token approval to "claim".
- Have wallets 1, 2 or 3 moved?They shouldn't on day one. The keys can. Watch them.
- Has a peer been set on the OFT?Zero today. A setPeer event opens a mint path.
- Has liquidity been pulled from the pool?Not locked. Draining it is the closest thing to a rug here.
- Treasury or charity wallets sending to exchanges?Allowed, but it's the team selling. Match them.
- Holders growing with the volume?If not, the volume is fake.
- Are listings live?Six venues were named. None in 48h means no exit door.
Deeper breakdowns live in The Vault
Live wallet tracking, exit calls as they trigger, and the same treatment for the next launch. Free.